Work and seasonality: econometrics as a tool applicable to job vacancies in Brazil

Abstract

National economic development is closely linked to the number of available jobs. Thus, in order to study this development, it became necessary to analyze variables related to it, such as admissions and dismissals. Therefore, the objective of this study focuses on finding mathematical models capable of explaining the behavior of these variables through linear forecasting models (ARIMA), which was possible with the application of the methodology of Box and Jenkins. The analysis refers to the number of admissions and dismissals, from May 1999 to October 2022. The mathematical models found for the admission variable were a SARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,0)12 , as well as for dismissals, also a SARIMA(1,1,0)(2,0,0)1,12. These models are able to predict the behavior of the series, following the economic movement of the country. In this way, a more in-depth study of economic development can be provided through these models, in order to identify the best times of the year for changing jobs, when there is a greater number of vacancies in the market, as well as, if using these models to combine series of economic indices and support the behavior of these variations.