Forecast upgrade: behavior of brazilian biodiesel production through Box & Jenkins modeling

Abstract

The biodiesel production process is spread across several countries around the world, with their own legislation and commercial strategy defined in each of them. This spread across continents facilitates the entry of the product into the list of world commodities, favoring the development of its market on a global scale. Thus, the Box & Jenkins methodology was conceptualized in order to analyze historical biodiesel production data and obtain forecasts of the amount produced in Brazil, which, with the rapid evolution of its biodiesel program, is inserted in the international context, becoming one of the largest biodiesel producers in the world. This analysis also considered the production variation that occurred due to the Covid-19 pandemic that started in March 2020. The choice of competing forecast models, more suitable for prediction, was based on graphic analysis and own statistical tests methodology, which supported the decision to adopt the SARIMA model (1,1,2)(1,1,0)12 to forecast the national production of this type of biofuel in m³. This study has been updated since 2014, when it was first published and published in a congress, so that it would be possible to achieve a high degree of modeling analysis over the years, managing to capture the most recent external influences.