Population projection of the City of Santa Izabel do Pará/PA-RMB
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.6008/CBPC2318-2881.2022.003.0011Keywords:
Demographic Growth, Population projection, Urbanization, Statistical dataAbstract
The current panorama that concerns the urbanization of the cities, takes place through the city-to-city migration in addition to the vegetative growth. For this, the present study seeks to carry out a population projection until the year 2040 for the municipality of Santa Isabel do Pará. For this study, IBGE data were used added to the use of statistical tools to obtain more adequate, reliable and important results. for a territorial ordering through the public management of the municipality and private companies. In this study, among the estimated demographic models for population projections in the municipality of Santa Izabel do Pará, the most convenient method among those tested in this research was the Geometric, because it presents consistent results observing the populations of the 1991 to 2010 Demographic Censuses. also the one that best fit the census data (1991, 2000 and 2010), observing the R² coefficient, presented a positive result of 0.98, indicating that the two variables express a strong correlation. The conception of long-term hypotheses for demographic factors is of paramount importance in the development and execution of projections, as it indisputably contributes to the excellence and accuracy of the applied model.
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