The asymmetric effect on the volatility of ethanol prices in the State of São Paulo: an application of the Asymmetric power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.6008/CBPC2179-684X.2021.002.0001Keywords:
Leverage effect, Price volatilityAbstract
This article examines the volatility of weekly returns on hydrous ethanol prices using the conditional variance model, also called heteroskedasticity. The analysis covers the period from November 29, 2002 to November 20, 2020. The empirical results demonstrated the reactions of persistence and asymmetry in the variance of the respective returns, that is, good and bad news impact differently on the volatility of the returns according with the ARMA (1.1) - APARCH (1.1) model, with generalized error distribution, from the point of view of making forecasts.
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