Public internal control regarding income and expenditure existing in the Brazilian federal government's RREO, in the years 2017 to 2021: an analysis of contingency effects on the budget

Abstract

The respective study seeks to analyze the systematics of public internal control and the impact of contingent effects related to income and expenditures, present in the Brazilian budget. For this, a survey of revenues and expenses was carried out from the Summary Report of Budget Execution (SRBE) of the federal government from 2017 to 2021, in addition to independent variables to obtain contingency effects on the budget. The research was carried out, therefore, through the analysis of secondary data with tables comparing fixed income and expenses versus post-fixed, in addition to the simple linear regression model and descriptive analysis. The results show the discrepancy between forecast and execution in public income and expenditure. In addition to the influence of socioeconomic variables on paid expenses and realized income. In the case of expenses paid, the most significant variables were the population projection (significance of 0.01) and expenses with salaries (significance of 0.02), while income is highlighted by the agricultural commodities index (R² 0.96), population projection (R² 0.92) and GDP (R² 0.89). It is also worth mentioning in the results, the budgetary balance of revenue versus expenses carried out on average almost in imbalance, within the scope of the Federal Government in the period from 2017 to 2021. Therefore, public internal control does not occur satisfactorily and needs to be better developed.