Space-temporal analysis of dengue in the municipality of Belém do Pará, Northern Brazil

Abstract

The objective of this work was to identify the areas at greatest risk for dengue in Belém do Pará, through the spatio-temporal distribution of cases from 2010 to 2019, outlining the direction of more urgent interventions. This is an ecological study that sought finer analyzes in a region lacking up-to-date epidemiological studies for dengue. For this, cases of the disease and socio-environmental data were used, which served to calculate incidence rates, the construction of a Living Condition Index and the performance of spatio-temporal analyzes through the techniques of the Local Bayesian Estimator, Index of Moran Global and Local, Kernel Density Estimator and Scan Methodology (Scan). The results observed were: high rates of dengue incidence and significant clusters in Belém, even in areas with better socio-environmental conditions, as is the case in the southern region of the city, and in the district of Mosqueiro (tourist area). The Scan showed a spatio-temporal cluster in the period from 2010 to 2012, suggesting the entry of new serotypes. These results showed that actions should be directed to maximize the cost-effectiveness of controls compared to random interventions, in addition to the importance of continuous monitoring for the disease, given that Belém has conditions that facilitate the vector.