Analysis of subseasonal flow forecasts for a hydrographic basin in the Cerrado biome of Brazil
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.6008/CBPC2179-6858.2022.002.0022Keywords:
Hydrological forecasting, Subseasonal flow forecasting, Large basinsAbstract
Several hydrographic basins in the brazilian Cerrado biome predominates, have registered severe periods of drought in recent years, coinciding with a strong expansion of irrigated agriculture. This scenario creates conditions for conflicts over the use of water, impacting various sectors of the economy. Anticipating future hydrological conditions is one of the strategies that can be adopted for the management of water resources in these basins. In this sense, this study aimed to analyze the flow forecasts per set in the subseasonal horizon for the Paracatu river basin, located in the Brazilian Cerrado, central region of Brazil. The adjustment of the Large Basin Model (MGB-IPH) was performed to simulate the flows, which later assimilated sub-seasonal forecasts per set of the Eta atmospheric model, to generate the flow forecasts. The forecasts were made up to 60 days in advance, with a group of 20 members. The results were analyzed comparing the predictions in deterministic and probabilistic ways. The results of the probabilistic prediction were better when compared to the results of the deterministic prediction. The best results were obtained for the beginning of the wet season. For the beginning of the dry season, the forecasts did not generate good results, tending to overestimate the flows in the years tested. It was concluded that subseasonal forecasts have potential for application in water resources management in basins in the central region of Brazil, but for specific periods in which atmospheric models have better performance in predicting precipitation.
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