Geostatistic analysis of temperature series of air temperature, reference evapotranspiration and pluvial precipitation

Abstract

The climatic variables influence several activities in the urban and agricultural environment and the study of the behavior of these variables over space and time is essential for the planning of these activities. Geostatistics is a tool that can be used to model and interpolate these variables on a spatial and temporal scale. Thus, the objective was to evaluate the behavior and temporal dependence of the monthly series of average air temperature, reference evapotranspiration and rainfall in the period from 2000 to 2020 for the city of Montes Claros - MG. The data were obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). A descriptive and semivariographic analysis of the climatic variables was made and mathematical models were adjusted to the experimental semivariograms. The average air temperature and reference evapotranspiration data showed less variability of the values compared to the rainfall values. The distribution format of the mean air temperature and reference evapotranspiration data approached the normal distribution. The mean air temperature and the reference evapotranspiration presented strong temporal dependence with ranges of 5.6 and 6 months, respectively. Precipitation did not show a good fit of the model, as found in the cross-validation. However, he obtained moderate temporal dependence and a range of 6.3 months.