Evaluation of the climatic forecast for an experimental basin, located in the southern region of Minas Gerais

Abstract

Climate change in the 21st century is an indisputable reality. Effects and impacts have been recorded on the climate and on society in many regions of the planet. More and more severe extreme events are being observed, especially extreme droughts and heavy rainfall, rarely recorded in the past. What made the studies involving changes in climate possible was the high performance of the available climate models, which simulate the dynamic properties of the atmosphere with acceptable precision. Such a process leads to the presence of systematic errors in the outputs of climate models, due to the imperfection in distinguishing the processes that occur in the atmosphere. With these questions, the objective of this work is to evaluate the bias correction technique percentile by percentile, performed for the precipitation and the temperature of the meteorological station of the Jaguara Creek basin, located in Minas Gerais and verify the trend of total precipitation and average temperature over the century using different scenarios. For this analysis, the projections of the Eta-HadGEM2-ES, Eta-MIROC5 and Eta-CanESM2 climate models were used, under the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The monthly results projected by the three models suggest that it was possible to capture the patterns of monthly variations until the end of the 21st century (2006-2099), with the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, when compared to baseline period (1961-2005).