Estimate of favorable temperature for the development of poultry farming

Abstract

The present study aimed to adjust the temperature data that occurred in the municipality of Santo Antônio de Leverger-MT, applying several Probability Density Functions. The historical series of minimum and maximum daily temperatures, obtained from the Meteorological Database for Teaching and Research (BDMEP) of the National Institute of Meteorology, were analyzed. For the research, the period from January 1987 to December 2019 was considered, registered at the Conventional Meteorological Station Padre Ricardo Remetter. With the aid of the EXCEL spreadsheet and the R program, the main descriptive statistics of the data were obtained, based on the position and dispersion measures and the box plot diagrams for each month and type of extreme temperature were elaborated in order to verify the characteristics of the distribution. Then, the monthly data for each temperature were grouped into ten (10) classes, adopting the Sturges Rule, to facilitate the definition of the probabilistic model. The minimum and maximum temperature data were adjusted to the five probabilistic distributions, as follows: Normal, Normal Log, Gamma, Gumbel, and Weibull. Subsequently, the data adherence to these distributions was verified by applying the Chi Square test. It was found that the values of the minimum daily temperature adjusted adequately to the Normal distribution for all months, however, the values of maximum temperature only in the months of January to April and from October to December. The months from May to September were modeled using the Gamma distribution. Therefore, based on the representative distributions of the months for each temperature, a stacked bar graph was prepared to estimate the probability of the monthly temperature, classified as very cold, suitable, and extremely hot for poultry farming. It was concluded that The Probability Density Functions (FDP) were adequate, accurate and reliable for adjusting the daily data of extreme temperatures (minimum and maximum) in each month of the year, in the municipality of Santo Antônio de Leverger-MT. The obtained models made it possible to define favorable limits for the development of poultry and to estimate the probability of occurrence of the three temperature categories in this municipality. The adopted methodology was presented as an excellent tool to predict the values of minimum and maximum temperatures throughout the year in that municipality, assisting in the planning of the construction of aviaries and their respective ventilation system.