Trend analysis in historical series of precipitation and streamflow in the UGRH2 Piracicaba, Minas Gerais
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.6008/CBPC2179-6858.2020.002.0016Keywords:
Average flow, Pettitt test, Rain, Stationarity, Time seriesAbstract
Detecting trends in historical rainfall and streamflow series is important for water resource management and can be done using statistical tests. Thus, the objective of this work was to analyze trends in precipitation and streamflow data at the stations of the Piracicaba River Water Resources Management Unit (UGRH2 Piracicaba), state of Minas Gerais, using Pettitt tests and linear regression analysis to evaluate the annual and monthly data. For the analyzes, fifteen rainfall stations and three fluviometric stations were selected, their respective historical series were obtained from the HidroWeb Portal of the National Water Agency. The results showed that, for the precipitation data, when the results of the different tests were significant, the observed trend was a decrease for the annual data, while for the monthly data the results varied between reduction, with higher occurrences in the month of February, and elevation, with higher occurrences in August. For the analysis of streamflow data, when the result of the different tests was significant, the observed trend was a decrease for both databases, with predominance of reduction of streamflow in the dry period. When evaluating the data set, it was not possible to establish a relationship between the results obtained between the precipitation data and the streamflow data.
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