Analysis of the correlation between socioeconomic, environmental, demographic factors and homicide - Roraima, Brazil, 2000-2020
Keywords:
Environment, State of Roraima, Violence, Homicide rateAbstract
The objective of the study is to analyze the association between socioeconomic, environmental and demographic factors and homicide in the state of Roraima from 2000 to 2020. This is an ecological, analytical study. The dependent variable, homicide rate, was calculated using the total number of deaths from aggression from the Mortality Information System. The independent (explanatory) variables were categorized into three axes: Axis 1 – Socioeconomic (Gini Index, Gross Domestic Product per capita in reais, General Market Price Index and the percentage of people aged 25 or over with high school education) ; Axis 2 – Environmental (percentage of the population served by the water supply network, percentage of the population served by sanitary sewage and percentage of the population served by garbage collection); and Axis 3 – Demographic (demographic density). The existence of correlation between the dependent variable and the independent variables was analyzed. In this exploratory step, we consider all pairwise correlations between all variables estimated using Pearson's Correlation coefficient (r). We considered as suggestive correlations with p<0.05. Then, a Principal Components Analysis (PCA) was performed to summarize the independent variables in only two axes (PC1, indicating the level of socioeconomic conditions, and PC2, indicating inequalities), in order to take into account, the various correlations between them. The highest correlations with the homicide rate were found in the percentage of the population served by sanitary sewage (r=0.60), GDP per capita (R$) and percentage of people aged 25 or over with high school education (r=0 .55), each. In the adjusted correlation analysis for the two models (PC1 and PC2), the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.42. In Roraima, there was an improvement in all socioeconomic and environmental indicators studied in the period 2000 to 2020, however they did not show a strong correlation with homicide rates, a fundamental indicator of violent crime. Although there is acceptance of the relationship between situations of poverty and social inequality and the occurrence of homicides, this research did not find a statistically significant association between these relationships, and showed that drug trafficking, the introduction of criminal factions and the lack of control of weapons of fire, in addition to the Venezuelan immigration that peaked in 2018, which made the border more vulnerable to police control, emerge as factors with important potential to explain the distribution of the high homicide rate in Roraima.
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