Monte Carlo simulation, applied to risk assessment of projects with Crystal Ball®

Authors

  • João Paulo Durão Maldonado Tenreiro Instituto Federal do Espírito Santo

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.6008/CBPC2318-3055.2021.002.0012

Keywords:

Crystal Ball, Monte Carlo, Projects, Simulation

Abstract

This work aims at presenting the outcomes of using the Monte Carlo simulation analysis in the risk assessment of projects in regards to the management of risks during the activities planned in the scope. To do so, the Crystal Ball® tool, which uses the Monte Carlo simulation based on electronic spreadsheets, was adopted in order to perform simulations, predictions and optimizations with the purpose of supporting decision-making. The study enables to verify the probabilities of occurrence of the calculated values through PERT technique for the duration estimates of a software implementation generic project.

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Author Biography

João Paulo Durão Maldonado Tenreiro, Instituto Federal do Espírito Santo

João Paulo Durão Maldonado Tenreiro é Engenheiro Mecânico, pós graduado em Engenharia de Projetos Industriais, Estruturas Metálicas e Aperfeiçoamento em Estruturas de Aço, sempre em busca da excelência acadêmica. Atua na área de Manutenção Industrial, com a criação de FMEA e planejamento de manutenção de EPPs ferroviáriose e Cálculo Estrutural e Projetos de Estruturas Metálicas, dimensionando estruturas metálicas e acompanhando em campo sua montagem.

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Published

2021-10-02

Issue

Vol. 9 No. 2 (2021): Engineering Sciences - Abr, Mai, Jun, Jul 2021

Section

Inovação Tecnológica

License

Copyright (c) 2021 Engineering Sciences

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

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