The short-term behavior of the volatility of Brazilian agricultural commodities in relation to the world: an application of the VAR model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.6008/CBPC2179-684X.2020.003.0002Keywords:
Autoregressive vectors, Volatility, CommoditiesAbstract
Agricultural activity is subject to several changes ranging from climatic, political effects, pests and diseases and also financial and economic effects. Regarding the latter, governmental changes, price structure, supply-demand and price seasonality can be listed as agents. Hence, the objective of this work was to analyze the short-term behavior of volatility present in the commodities sugar, coffee, soybean meal, Brazilian soybean oil vis-Ã -vis the world, and vice versa in order to investigate whether changes in prices of each of these are related to world and Brazilian variations. To this end, the study made use of the GARCH, GJR and EGARCH models to determine which of these fitted the model better. To determine short-term behavior, the study used the autoregressive vector model (AVM) in commodities pair by pair. It was observed that, for the world market, the commodity that has greater associated volatility is Coffee, and in Brazil, Sugar. From the perspective of short-term volatility behavior, it was observed that sugar is the most seasonal, with volatility influences in up to 14 lags. For Coffee and Soybean Meal, it was noted that the world market is not influenced by the Brazilian, and the Brazilian has a direct influence on the world market. For Soy Oil and Soy in Grain, the presence of unidirectional volatility was observed, that is, the markets are not related to each other, which indicates that for these last two markets, the associated risks are present only in their markets.
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